Need advice: trade-in vs. keep costs

[drogoff]

Hi all.

I need some advice/numbers from the group to decide between trading in vs. keeping my MC. I have an '03 MC, excellent condition, 36k miles. I'm a bit worried about repair/service costs with the warranty running out in a few months.

Here's a quick estimate I did of where I'd be in four years in both cases:

Keep car:
repair cost over 4 years (here's where I need more data): $4,000?
trade-in value after 4 years: $4,000?
NET: $0!

Trade in now for '06 MCS
New car cost $14,000 ($27,000 - $13,000 trade-in)
repair cost over 4 years: $0
trade-in value after 4 years: $14,000?
NET: $0!

According to this, it's a wash, except for the new car having more up-front cost. Does this make sense? I'd appreciate any opinions and estimates of costs.

Thanks!

David