MINIsOnTop June 16th, 2007

[GadgetGav]

The used to do this at the local village fete where I grew up (cue jokes about villages and idiots). I'm willing to put down a big sum (but not $20K) that no-one wins the car...! It's a big enough prize though that many people will try - just look at the lottery for proof of greed over logic.
I think adding secondary prizes would make it much more appealing.

[Cape Cod MINI]

Theo, When we did the MOT raffle for KDC I had to pull a permit here in the town of Dennis because one of their two locations was Dennis. This isn't a raffle though is it? Definitely need to check w/ NH on this one.

[holdenontoit]

As the probability of actually rolling all 6 , 6 sided dice with the winning side up is staggering(1,679,616 to 1) to say the least, what happens if NO ONE rolls a winner????(very likely actually) This sounds like a game of chance and I agree that the sovereign state of Cow Hampshire should probably be consulted on this one. Considering the odds, I think $5 a throw is a little steep, maybe not as all the proceeds go to our designated charity, but personally I think the idea of a system that provides for a definate winner is better all around. JMHO. Jock

PS .interestingly enough, I play a game using 6 dice where scores are calculated using 5's as 50, 1's as 100 , 3 of a kind = the face value x 100 (all rolled at once of course) . in the 20 odd years I've been playing this ,I have NEVER.............NEVER......... seen 6 dice rolled at once with all the same value, let alone singling out one side of the dice, as the ones that have to come up at once

[NoNo]

Are you still playing Dungeons and Dragons, Jock?

[holdenontoit]

Quote: Originally Posted by NoNo (original)

Are you still playing Dungeons and Dragons, Jock?

never have............never will.
No, this game was originally called "five dice" , but we upped the ante and started playing it with 6 a while ago. I actually made some really cool 5/8" square tool steel dice which I hardened and ground ..........Stunning!

[GadgetGav]

The chance of throwing a six with one die is, obviously, 1/6
The chance of throwing two sixes with two dice is 1/6 * 1/6 or 1 in 36
The chance of rolling six sixes with six dice is (1/6)^6 or 1 in 46,656

At $5 a roll, chances are that the pot will be $233,280 before the car is won..! That's a lot of MINIs!
Of course, probability being what it is, the very first person could be that 1 in 46,656 and walk away with the car, but these things are always insured against having to give away the car and it's a safer bet for an insurance company than most of the things they insure.

Even at $1 a roll, the pot will be more than double the prize, but the extra winning combinations will add to the pay out. Chances of winning are:
Two sixes : 1 in 36
Three sixes : 1 in 216
Four sixes : 1 in 1,296
Five sixes : 1 in 7,776

So at $5 a throw, five sixes should be more than enough to win a prize of $20,000...

Not trying to be a kill joy here - just trying to put it in perspective. Obviously, if the money is going to a good cause, that throws everything out the window. Then you're just asking people how much money they'd like to donate, with a very small chance of having something to show for it.

While we're on the subject of permits etc, what would be the tax implications for winning? I know that if you win the lottery here, you don't get anything like the headline amount once all the taxes have been paid and they work out the future value of money if you choose a lump sum. Would this have very different implications from winning a two year lease...?

[GadgetGav]

At least it's better chances than the Mega Millions - the chance of winning that first prize is 1 in 135,145,920...!!!

135 Million..!! To win 43 million... hmmmm

edit

Chance of being killed by lightning : 1 in 2,320,000
Chance of becoming a pro athlete : 1 in 22,000 (there's hope for me yet! )
Chance of becoming a saint : 1 in 20,000,000 (i.e. better odds than winning the car!)
Chance of getting a royal flush with the first five cards dealt : 1 in 649,740
Chance of having the same bithday as the next person you meet : 1 in 25,000

Chances that anyone read this list : 1 in 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

[bjl]

I agree with Jock - there needs to be a definite winner.

I just booked my room at the T&C.

[m2smith]

You got a room- That makes you a winner
See how easy it is???

[jwardell]

From a player perspective, it sounds like fun, and well worth $5 a roll.

From an organizational perspective, you have to think how you will organize this...live everyone up? (long line!) How do you organize the spectation? And what time of the day can it be shoehorned in?

From a business perspective, the chances of winning are 1 in 46656 per roll. So most likely, no one will win, and you won't get the publicity of giving away a mini. Then again it is possible but not probable that everyone rolls a free mini--are you prepared to give away multiple?
Probably need to say once it is won, it's gone, and six sixes just wins some other top prize.
But still, the high chance of no publicity does not make a good business decision.

That's why a raffle is better, it is easier to organize and you are guaranteed to give away one and only one grand prize.

I do, however, highly encourage all dealers attend throughout the day and set up big booths in each of the parking lots, I think previous efforts have been lacking as far as presence goes (not of course in prizes or donations).

[bjl]

Quote: Originally Posted by m2smith (original)

You got a room- That makes you a winner
See how easy it is???

What do I get, what do I get?!?

[MaxaMiniBro]

I've been wondering if there is some way to tie in fund raising at MOT with the Bill's Bills project. It just seems like it would make the effort more near and dear to our hearts. Just a thought, as our thoughts are with Bill and Libby.

[holdenontoit]

Quote: Originally Posted by bjl (original)

What do I get, what do I get?!?

a room.

[m2smith]

Bill's Bill is a big one and would need more than just the MOT attendees. The Cod has put the word out to every MINI dealer and every MINI club and every MINI website in a Cod like effort. Buy a duck for the BABE run - Buy a 1000 ducks for the BABE run - Why a duck? (insert Marx Brothers routine here) - Because MINI owners do take care of each other!!!!
The MOT charity (for this year -it's Rosie's Place) has always been chosen to help outside our own group to make us good citizens of a bigger world -
But philosophy aside - http://www.mini2.com/forum/2856062-post129.html

[GBMINI]

All good thoughts on the dice throwing folks (except Jock, where did you calculate those odds! I'm with Gavin & Josh a 1:46656).

The issue here is that an insurance company would underwrite this venture, paid by New Country. Their rules would control the event. Their rules currently include: only one winner, limit of 300 rolls.
Charging less than a minimum $5 per roll makes it almost pointless - you'd probably raise less than the insurance cost for running the event!
Yes, it's probable that no-one will win (300/46656=1/2%); even though, we'd need a plan of action if a win happened - stop throwing? split the prize if a second winner occurred?

I do agree with Jock that the previous two years excellent donation from Herb Chambers MINI was much nicer in many ways - we knew that someone would definitely win. Of course a lease isn't as valuable as an outright car ...


This is why we need lots of discussion!